Pre-Written Crypto Digital Content Store
Pre-Written Crypto Digital Content Store
This article was originally posted on site: computerworld.com
Written By: Matthew Finnegan
The metaverse has been described as the next phase of the internet: interconnected and persistent 3D spaces where we will work, play, and, so it seems, purchase virtual real estate. But metaverse-related technologies have failed to keep up with the considerable hype, the vision of ultrarealistic virtual environments offered by tech vendors miles away from the current reality of cartoony avatars and cumbersome, expensive headsets.
As the hype spotlight has shifted sharply to generative AI and all its dangers and possibilities, talk of the metaverse — or “Meh-taverse” — these days largely centers on its demise. And not without reason: Meta (formerly Facebook), which changed its name in 2021 to reflect its new focus, has spent billions on VR development with comparatively little return, at least so far. Sales of VR and AR headsets have fallen short of expectations. And Microsoft shuttered AltspaceVR, the social VR platform it acquired in 2017, and has reportedly laid off workers focused on mixed reality development while making AI its clear priority going forward.
The metaverse’s association with other struggling “Web3” technologies, namely blockchain, NFTs, and crypto — considered by some to be essential to the future decentralized metaverse — hasn’t exactly helped either.
“We are in a winter for the metaverse, and how long that chill lasts remains to be seen,” said J.P. Gownder, vice president and principal analyst on Forrester’s Future of Work team. Late last year, the analyst firm predicted a drop-off in interest during 2023 as a more realistic picture of the technology’s current possibilities emerged. “The hype was way exceeding the reality of the capabilities of the technology, the interest from customers — both business and consumer — and just the overall maturity of the market.”
Yet the metaverse concept isn’t going away. “We think that, in the future, something like the metaverse will exist, whereby we have a 3D experience layer over the internet,” said Gownder. Don’t expect this to happen any time soon, though: the development of the metaverse could take a decade, according to Forrester. Another analyst firm, Gartner, envisions a similar timeframe.
As metaverse hype subsides, the underlying technologies continue to develop and evolve, on both the hardware and software front. At the same time, necessary but less attention-grabbing elements, such as standards, are beginning to coalesce, with the establishment of the Metaverse Standards Forum, for example. Meanwhile, businesses continue to find a variety of use cases — whether in virtual and augmented reality or browser-based 3D environments — for what may prove to be the precursors to a more fully formed metaverse further down the line.
“We need to think about this notion of the ‘Meta’ metaverse and put that aside for now,” said Ari Lightman, professor of digital media and marketing at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU). Instead, attention could shift to the development of “smaller metaverses” as the nascent underlying technologies continue to mature, albeit at a slower pace.
“There continues to be steady development of metaverse-type concepts. But just like we saw with the march to autonomous vehicles, this takes a long time to mature and put into place,” Lightman said.
Financial services firm BlackRock believes the metaverse will take years to come to fruition but sees potential now for investments in companies that build the underlying technologies. Earlier this year, BlackRock established an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that focuses on a wide range of tech companies seen as connected to the metaverse concept, from Apple and Microsoft to chip makers Nvidia and Qualcomm, 3D simulation software firm Dassault Systèmes, and games companies including Activision Blizzard and Ubisoft.
“The metaverse is in an early adoption stage, with massive disruptive potential across media and entertainment, communications, healthcare, and even education and enterprise tools,” said Jeff Spiegel, head of US iShares Megatrend and International ETFs at BlackRock. Spiegel pointed to a McKinsey report that claims more than $120 billion was invested in building metaverse-related technologies during 2022, more than double the previous year. “We believe this is just scratching the surface of theme’s total addressable market,” said Spiegel.
It’s not clear how investment levels are holding up this year, given the shift in mood toward the near-term potential of the technology. It certainly seems as though the rate of metaverse-related announcements by large brands has tapered off during 2023.
But the recent backlash against the metaverse concept hasn’t halted business interest, according to one survey, at least. Two-thirds of global business leaders say the metaverse will have a “significant impact” on global business in the next 10 years, according to a survey of 250 board members, executives, and business leaders conducted by consultancy firm Protiviti and the University of Oxford between December 2022 and February this year.
Almost half (45%) have already begun to use the metaverse to engage with customers, and a further 20% plan to start doing so in the next two to three years. Marketing and advertising is the most common use case (79%), followed by immersive shopping and product simulations (43%).
Games such as Roblox, Fortnite, and Minecraft Marketplace have been viewed as one way for businesses to engage in an early form of the metaverse, as well as blockchain-based digital worlds such as Decentraland and Sandbox, which have a strong focus on commerce. Nike, Lego, Walmart, H&M, Coca-Cola, and Burberry are among the brands that have established a presence in these types of shared 3D worlds in recent years.
“A lot of the brands we work with, whether it’s Nike or Estee Lauder, have been thinking about utilizing this space as a mechanism to connect with the next generation of consumer — Gen Z and the like — and also to understand what is the blend between physical and digital [for retail experiences],” said CMU’s Lightman.
Immersive 3D platforms are nothing particularly new: Linden Lab launched its 3D social platform Second Life in 2003. Roblox officially launched just three years later, but has seen its popularity boom only relatively recently, with more than 60 million daily users, according to Statista. These 3D worlds might not be considered true “metaverse” examples in their current form, but they provide a lucrative opportunity for businesses to reach customers in immersive worlds, particularly a younger generation.
“On the consumer side… it’s a new means of marketing,” said Lewis Ward, a VR/AR market analyst at IDC. “Rather than traditional media advertising channels, you’re going to reach reasonably tech-savvy people with your message through a smartphone, laptop, or games console. I think it’s clear that has a very bright future.”
Selling to gamers populating these environments can be highly profitable. Clothes retailer Forever 21 sold more than a million units of a virtual beanie hat when it went on sale on Roblox at the end of last year. Each beanie was sold for 75 British pence (about 93 US cents), according to the Financial Times. The cost to design and launch the product: $500. The company now also sells a real-life version of the hat for $15 so that customers can look like their avatars.
Not all companies have been so successful in their early endeavors in this space. Walmart, for example, shut down one of its Roblox initiatives several months after launch, amid reported criticisms over advertising to young children.
Brands are also trying out augmented reality as a sales tool. For instance, jewelry retailer Cartier’s in-store use of AR involves customers trying on different rings more easily, Wired reported, and provides virtual access to high-end products that aren’t available on-premises. And Gucci and Ikea are among the sellers offering AR apps to let customers try out products remotely.
Outside of gaming and consumer social platforms, there are ongoing attempts to bring virtual and mixed reality to workplace collaboration, which has been tagged as another metaverse use case by some.
It remains to be seen whether employees are willing to work and attend meetings that involve wearing a headset. A 2022 survey of over 10,000 workers by Forrester showed that less than one in ten (8%) use a VR headset for work purposes each week.
Currently, at least, the technology is limited by hardware that’s often too heavy and cumbersome for extended use, while the cost of more powerful devices is prohibitive for many businesses that don’t have a serious interest in the possibilities for collaboration.
There’s certainly potential, though. Intriguing, if slightly niche, VR and AR use cases continue to emerge. In February, a Colombian court conducted a session in a virtual environment, with participants, including the judge, donning VR headsets and appearing as avatars. The two-hour hearing — a case brought by a transport union against the police — was hosted in Meta’s Horizon Workrooms, while also live-streamed on YouTube for the public to view, according to Reuters. Last month, two Scottish courts announced a plan to offer victims and witnesses access to 3D recreations of courtrooms via VR headsets in order to familiarize themselves with the environment before taking the stand and prepare for the daunting experience of giving evidence.
More broadly, it remains early days for immersive technologies in the workplace. Meta’s Horizon Workrooms is still in beta but showcases the potential of mixed reality in a work environment, particularly when paired with the extensive face and hand tracking of the Quest Pro headset, which enables a sense of presence not possible with Zoom meetings.
However long it takes, Ward is confident that the metaverse will eventually catch on. “The idea of the 3D internet… I don’t think there’s a chance that that’s going to die. You’re going to be able to experience that on every device out there: smartphones, PCs, tablets, TV sets, and, yes, AR/VR headsets.”